War and chance : assessing uncertainty in international politics

Resource Information

The work War and chance : assessing uncertainty in international politics represents a distinct intellectual or artistic creation found in European University Institute. This resource is a combination of several types including: Work, Language Material, Books.

Label

War and chance : assessing uncertainty in international politics

Title remainder

assessing uncertainty in international politics

Statement of responsibility

Jeffrey A. Friedman

Creator

• Friedman, Jeffrey A., (Jeffrey Allan)

Subject

• National security -- Decision making
• National security -- United States -- Decision making
• Uncertainty -- Political aspects
• Uncertainty -- Political aspects -- United States
• United States -- Foreign relations | Decision making
• International relations -- Decision making

Language

eng

Summary

'War and Chance' analyzes the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty in international affairs. It explains how the most important kinds of uncertainty in international politics are inherently subjective, and yet how scholars, practitioners, and pundits can still debate these issues in clear and structured ways. Altogether, the text shows how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any kind of foreign policy analysis or decision.--

Assigning source

Provided by publisher

Illustrations

illustrations

Index

index present

Literary form

non fiction

Nature of contents

• dictionaries
• bibliography

Series statement

Oxford scholarship online.

Target audience

specialized