European University Institute Library

Leading economic indicators, new approaches and forecasting records, edited by Kajal Lahiri and Geoffrey H. Moore

eng

index present

non fiction

Leading economic indicators

electronic resource

dictionaries

818331579

edited by Kajal Lahiri and Geoffrey H. Moore

Cambridge Social Sciences eBooks

new approaches and forecasting records

Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.--, Provided by publisher

Toward a theory of leading indicators / Frank De Leeuw -- A time-series framework for the study of leading indicators / Salih N. Neftci -- A probability model of the coincident economic indicators / James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson -- An international application of Neftci's probability approach for signaling growth recessions and recoveries using turning point indicators / Michael P. Niemira -- On predicting the stage of the business cycle / Roy H. Webb -- Bayesian methods for forecasting turning points in economic time-series : sensitivity of forecasts to asymmetry of loss structures / Arnold Zellner and Chansik Hong -- New developments in leading indicators / Geoffrey H. MooreLeading indicators of inflation / Howard L. Roth -- Commodity prices as a leading indicator of inflation / James M. Boughton and William H. Branson -- A leading indicator of inflation based on interest rates / Susmita Dasgupta and Kajal Lahiri -- Using composite leading indicators of consumption to forecast sales and to signal turning points in the stock market / Michael P. Niemira -- Economic indicators for Australia's service sector / Ernst A. Boehm -- Purchasing management survey data : their value as leading indicators / Philip A. Klein and Geoffrey H. Moore -- An agenda for inventories input to the leading composite index / Feliks TammForecasting cyclical turning points : the record in the past three recessions / Stephen K. McNees -- Turning point predictions, errors, and forecasting procedures / H.O. Stekler -- Forecasting peaks and troughs in the business cycle : on the choice and use of appropriate leading indicator series / Stephen J. Silver -- Using a consensus of leading economic indicators to find the right ball park for real GNP forecasts / Edward F. Renshaw -- Some Australian experience with leading economic indicators / Allan P. Layton -- Turning point prediction with the composite leading index : an ex ante analysis / Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch -- Forecasting recessions under the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings law / Victor Zarnowitz and Geoffrey H. Moore