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The Resource Time predictions : understanding and avoiding unrealism in project planning and everyday life, Torleif Halkjelsvik, Magne Jørgensen, (electronic resource)

Time predictions : understanding and avoiding unrealism in project planning and everyday life, Torleif Halkjelsvik, Magne Jørgensen, (electronic resource)

Label
Time predictions : understanding and avoiding unrealism in project planning and everyday life
Title
Time predictions
Title remainder
understanding and avoiding unrealism in project planning and everyday life
Statement of responsibility
Torleif Halkjelsvik, Magne Jørgensen
Creator
Contributor
Author
Subject
Language
eng
Summary
This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.--
Member of
Assigning source
Provided by publisher
http://library.link/vocab/creatorName
Halkjelsvik, Torleif
Illustrations
illustrations
Image bit depth
0
Index
no index present
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
dictionaries
http://library.link/vocab/relatedWorkOrContributorName
Jørgensen, Magne
Series statement
  • Open Access e-Books
  • Simula SpringerBriefs on Computing
Series volume
5
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • Project management
  • Personnel management
  • Management information systems
  • Economics
Label
Time predictions : understanding and avoiding unrealism in project planning and everyday life, Torleif Halkjelsvik, Magne Jørgensen, (electronic resource)
Link
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74953-2
Instantiates
Publication
Antecedent source
mixed
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Color
not applicable
Content category
text
Content type code
txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
Preface -- 1. Introduction: 1.1 A prediction success -- 1.2 Prediction disasters -- 2. How we Predict Time Usage: 2.1 Mental time travel -- 2.2 How did you make that prediction? -- 2.3 Time predictions are everywhere -- 2.4 How good are we at predicting time? -- 3. Predictions and the Uncertainty of the Future: 3.1 Precisely wrong or roughly right? -- 3.2 Communication of time predictions -- 3.3 Probability-based time predictions -- 3.4 Right-skewed time distributions -- 3.5 Relearning to add: 2 + 2 is usually more than 4 -- 3.6 How to predict the mean time usage -- 3.7 How time predictions affect performance -- 4. Overoptimistic Predictions: 4.1 Optimism, overoptimism, and overoptimistic predictions -- 4.2 The benefits of overoptimism -- 4.3 The desire to control time -- 4.4 Motivation to make accurate time usage predictions -- 4.5 Selection bias -- 4.6 Deception -- 4.7 Who makes the most realistic time predictions? -- 5. Time Prediction Biases: 5.1 The team scaling fallacy -- 5.2 Anchoring -- 5.3 Sequence effects -- 5.4 Format effects -- 5.5 The magnitude effect -- 5.6 Length of task description -- 5.7 The time unit effect -- 6. Uncertainty of Time Predictions: 6.1 Why are we overconfident? -- 6.2 What can we do to avoid overconfidence? -- 6.2.1 The use of alternative interval prediction formats -- 6.2.2 Learning from accuracy feedback -- 7. Time Prediction Methods and Principles: 7.1 Unpacking and decomposition -- 7.2 Analogies -- 7.3 Relative predictions -- 7.4 Time prediction models -- 7.5 Consider alternative futures -- 7.6 Combinations of time predictions -- 7.7 Let other people make the prediction? -- 7.8 Removing irrelevant and misleading information -- 7.9 From Fibonacci to t-shirt sizes: Time predictions using alternative scales -- 8. Time Predictions: Matching the Method to the Situation -- 9. How to Obtain Overoptimistic Time Predictions from Others
Control code
978-3-319-74953-2
Dimensions
unknown
Extent
1 online resource (XII, 110 pages)
File format
multiple file formats
Form of item
  • online
  • electronic
Isbn
9783319749532
Level of compression
uncompressed
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
c
Other physical details
12 illustrations, 11 illustrations in color.
Quality assurance targets
absent
Reformatting quality
access
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
(OCoLC)1078972093
Label
Time predictions : understanding and avoiding unrealism in project planning and everyday life, Torleif Halkjelsvik, Magne Jørgensen, (electronic resource)
Link
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-74953-2
Publication
Antecedent source
mixed
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Color
not applicable
Content category
text
Content type code
txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
Preface -- 1. Introduction: 1.1 A prediction success -- 1.2 Prediction disasters -- 2. How we Predict Time Usage: 2.1 Mental time travel -- 2.2 How did you make that prediction? -- 2.3 Time predictions are everywhere -- 2.4 How good are we at predicting time? -- 3. Predictions and the Uncertainty of the Future: 3.1 Precisely wrong or roughly right? -- 3.2 Communication of time predictions -- 3.3 Probability-based time predictions -- 3.4 Right-skewed time distributions -- 3.5 Relearning to add: 2 + 2 is usually more than 4 -- 3.6 How to predict the mean time usage -- 3.7 How time predictions affect performance -- 4. Overoptimistic Predictions: 4.1 Optimism, overoptimism, and overoptimistic predictions -- 4.2 The benefits of overoptimism -- 4.3 The desire to control time -- 4.4 Motivation to make accurate time usage predictions -- 4.5 Selection bias -- 4.6 Deception -- 4.7 Who makes the most realistic time predictions? -- 5. Time Prediction Biases: 5.1 The team scaling fallacy -- 5.2 Anchoring -- 5.3 Sequence effects -- 5.4 Format effects -- 5.5 The magnitude effect -- 5.6 Length of task description -- 5.7 The time unit effect -- 6. Uncertainty of Time Predictions: 6.1 Why are we overconfident? -- 6.2 What can we do to avoid overconfidence? -- 6.2.1 The use of alternative interval prediction formats -- 6.2.2 Learning from accuracy feedback -- 7. Time Prediction Methods and Principles: 7.1 Unpacking and decomposition -- 7.2 Analogies -- 7.3 Relative predictions -- 7.4 Time prediction models -- 7.5 Consider alternative futures -- 7.6 Combinations of time predictions -- 7.7 Let other people make the prediction? -- 7.8 Removing irrelevant and misleading information -- 7.9 From Fibonacci to t-shirt sizes: Time predictions using alternative scales -- 8. Time Predictions: Matching the Method to the Situation -- 9. How to Obtain Overoptimistic Time Predictions from Others
Control code
978-3-319-74953-2
Dimensions
unknown
Extent
1 online resource (XII, 110 pages)
File format
multiple file formats
Form of item
  • online
  • electronic
Isbn
9783319749532
Level of compression
uncompressed
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
c
Other physical details
12 illustrations, 11 illustrations in color.
Quality assurance targets
absent
Reformatting quality
access
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
(OCoLC)1078972093

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